A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
